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Dynamic Pricing

You take two tins of baked beans from a supermarket shelf. You pay for your shopping, then realise you need another tin. You return to the shelf, and find the price has gone up because the supermarket recognised baked beans as popular right now.

You’d be at the customer services desk to complain within moments… yet when you buy your airline ticket, you don’t comment at all when exactly the same thing happens.

It isn’t an ‘internet’ thing either. Fifteen years ago – pre online – the travel industry did it all the time with air tickets. I know, I was there. The thing to remember is that (with a few exceptions near the bulkheads and toilets) all airline seats in a single class are the same. You pay for extra space and that is all – you get to the same place regardless.

Theatre seats are different. Some have better views than others, and are differentiated by price accordingly. The best seats are now at “premium” prices, and an article in “The Stage” newspaper (15th September 2011) suggests that theatre owners Ambassador (ATG) want to experiment with this further next year as their new reservation system goes live.

Put simply, they want to designate a group of seats at “premium” price and then reduce them if demand dictates. This has already been seen in a small way with one production at one of their venues earlier in the year, but they hope to expand it.

I’m is curious about whether this will work. At one smash hit new musical, Theatremonkey.com has already had two reports of readers asking to be moved in advance / being moved on the day by the venue to fill gaps in the ‘premium’ area.

This begs the question, “will advance bookers alter their habits once word gets out?” We already know that consumers play ‘chicken’ with any retailer who has either perishable stock like holidays to sell, or deadlines like Christmas Day to shift merchandise. Whoever blinks first suffers – and it seems to be the seller more often than not.

It might surprise people to know that the amount of cash in the advance sales box office is pretty vital to a producer. They can’t actually touch it until an agreed point after the performance date, but it accumulates interest (whether for producer or box office operator provides some amusing court cases) but it does provide ‘security’ for advance planning – and enhances producers’ credibility when they begin work on their next project.

What worries me is that the ‘advance’ may shrink noticeably under the new system, to the detriment of planning for new shows. I’m not much for ‘advance booking’ myself, but if I do, and know that if I wait until a week before I could get far better seats for the same price… I’ll wait.

Regular theatregoers – the lifeblood of new shows for their first few weeks until word spreads – are a clever bunch, and are likely (I predict) to do the same. Result: no interest earned on advance cash, no people safely booked in who will spread the word about a show, no nice cushion of cash in the box office for a producer to launch an new project from.

The ATG experiment may work, it may not… but either way, I really hope they know what they are doing…

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